Authors: Robert Ayson and David Capie

​When we launched Incline back in April, we were motivated by a sense that there was not enough commentary on the issues that affect New Zealand as it charts its way in the world. We felt there were too few discussion pieces that put a New Zealand spin on developments in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. We wanted to do our bit to try and fill the gap.  Looking back as 2015 draws to a close, we like to think we’ve made a good start.
 
Since April, we have published thirty substantive posts covering everything from parliament’s scrutiny of trade agreements to the future of the monarchy in the Pacific, from killer robots to New Zealand’s actions on the UN Security Council. We’ve touched on bilateral issues, including ties with China, India, Russia and the United States, as well as New Zealand’s dealings with regional groups like ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum. There has been debate about the next Defence White Paper, and commentary on the UN’s women, peace and security agenda and how best to protect civilians in conflict zones.

Author Beth Greener

New Zealand’s next Defence White Paper is likely to be published in March 2016. In addition to the tricky question of how to tackle violent extremism and concerns about cyber threats, there are a number of other non-conventional security issues that should be central to this document. In particular, three key interconnected issues at stake are the impacts of climate change, resource scarcity, and stability operations. Many of these have been noted in previous policy statements such as the 2014 Defence Assessment, and in training exercises such as Southern Katipo, as issues that impact upon Defence (both the civilian Ministry and the operational NZDF).

​However additional changes are needed. As Defence may not (or should not) necessarily be the lead agency in these cases, more needs to be done to recognise the centrality of civil-military relations in responding to these issues. This means looking to develop interagency relationships to an unprecedented degree - reconsidering how current institutions and priorities within and relations between those institutions enable or frustrate New Zealand’s overall ability to respond to non-conventional security issues.

Author: David Capie

​Four years ago the New Zealand government unveiled the first of its ‘NZ Inc’ Country Strategy Papers ‘Opening Doors to India’, which set the goal of having India as a ‘core trade, economic and political partner’ by the end of 2015.  That time is now up but it is clear the intended goal remains far from met. Indeed, it’s not even close.  As a participant in a recent track two dialogue organized by the New Zealand India Research Institute and the Observer Research Foundation put it, the relationship today is warm but ‘a little bit empty’.  For all the platitudes about a shared tradition of parliamentary democracy and Commonwealth heritage, and our mutual love of cricket, the relationship looks shallow almost across the spectrum. 
 
Take high level visits - a quick measure for the state of any political relationship. Helen Clark visited India in 2004 and John Key in 2011 (and another visit is in the pipeline for early 2016). Senior New Zealand Ministers including Tim Groser, Murray McCully and Stephen Joyce have trod the path to Delhi over the last few years. By contrast, the last Indian Prime Minister to visit New Zealand was Rajiv Gandhi in 1986. Narendra Modi’s decision to visit Australia and Fiji, but not New Zealand, during his 2014 Pacific tour, sent a clear if unfortunate message.

Author: Benedict Xu-Holland

Over the last two decades the negotiation and completion of bilateral and multi-lateral trade agreements has been at the forefront of New Zealand’s foreign policy. Notable achievements include being the leading participant in negotiations for the U.S-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). 

​This focus leads commentators in policy circles to characterise Wellington’s foreign policy strategy as a trade-above-all-else agenda. Although, the wider benefits of trade agreements range from strengthening international security to a way of leveraging New Zealand’s influence internationally. In domestic politics the TPP is described by Prime Minister John Key as an economic bonanza: ‘that’s more jobs, higher incomes and a better standard of living for New Zealanders’.