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Winning the Military Battle, Losing the Political War in Iraq

21/4/2016

 
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Author: Darren Brunk

In a recently-released report to Cabinet, the New Zealand government paints a positive picture of its military training mission in Iraq – New Zealand’s contribution to the Global Coalition to combat the so-called Islamic State (ISIL). According to the report, Iraqi Security Forces are making military gains against the terrorist group in Iraq – reclaiming up to 40% of ISIL-held territory - “due in part to the increased capability of Iraqi forces and the air support provided by coalition partners.”
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Defeating terrorists on the Iraqi battlefield is not the hard part. After all, the US, Government of Iraq and international partners have fought and won a similar campaign before. But herein lies the problem. Unless and until the Government of Iraq and its global coalition partners, including New Zealand, get the political strategy right, ISIL and its ilk may still prevail.

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How New is New Zealand's New Language on the South China Sea?

15/4/2016

 
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Author  David Capie

In the last few weeks, Foreign Minister McCully has been offering some important soundings on NZ's international priorities for 2016. Unfortunately the two speeches he gave in Singapore and Sydney attracted little coverage in the New Zealand media. That’s a pity because in amongst sections on the UN Security Council and the Pacific, the speeches included the government's latest views on the biggest security issue facing the region today: tensions in the South China Sea.
 
Disputes in the South China Sea go back decades, but over the last three years in particular, the situation has got progressively worse.  In 2012, Chinese and Philippines vessels clashed over access to the Scarborough Shoal, less than 200km off the coast of Luzon.  In 2014, Vietnam's relations with China plunged following clashes in disputed waters. And in the last two years China has also begun an effort to construct artificial islands on a range of reefs and partially submerged features in the Spratly Islands. For its part, the United States has declared it has a national interest in freedom of navigation and overflight in the region and in the past few months the US Navy has carried out two Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), sailing close to disputed features, to assert these rights.

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    Incline is a New Zealand-based project that publishes original analysis and commentary on issues and trends that impact New Zealand's international relations. 

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