Authors     Robert Ayson and David Capie

If Bill English wasn’t preparing to enjoy his retirement and was instead getting stuck into his first full term as Prime Minister, it is almost certain that his government would be planning to extend its military contribution in Iraq. National's decision might have been broadly predictable, but the same cannot be said for Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-led coalition. What the Prime Minister and her Cabinet colleagues choose to do on Iraq presents a series of challenges in the weighing of international and domestic expectations.

The latter are not to be sniffed at. When John Key finally announced in February 2015 that New Zealand would send forces to join their Australian counterparts at Taji, Labour’s leader of the time Andrew Little was quick to oppose that decision. When the mission was renewed in mid-2016, Labour and its two current political partners – New Zealand First and the Greens - all indicated that they did not support an extension of New Zealand's military presence. 

​Author   Robert Ayson

​Meetings between New Zealand and Australian foreign ministers are a regular occurrence. They rarely produce moments of novelty or excitement in Trans-Tasman relations. But on the occasion of Julie Bishop’s visit to meet Winston Peters at picturesque Waiheke Island, we have good reasons to pay close attention. On the assumption that the two governments will release a readout of their meeting, here are the five things I think need to be included.
 
First, while it may seem completely routine for the two foreign ministers to emphasise the importance of the trans-Tasman relationship, that point is more poignant than usual. It would be a further signal of the determination on both sides of the ditch to get beyond the noisy atmospherics over the Manus detainees and claims of political interference. 

Michael Powles

​There can be no doubt that the international environment in which New Zealand will have to operate in the decades ahead will be enormously more difficult than the environment we’ve been used to. The facts pointing to China’s coming economic preponderance and the political power that will give it, regionally and globally, seem indisputable.
 
Nevertheless, a few observers seem to believe that if several other countries act together, under US leadership, China’s power could somehow be contained. I believe that they are simply ignoring clear facts. Perhaps there is an element of wishful thinking. “Past policies have been successful – let’s just continue them.” I’m reminded of the man who’s said to have jumped off the top of the Empire State Building in New York and to have been heard shouting, as he passed the 50th floor on his descent, “Fine, so far!”